The Foppert is back

The Giants signed Jesse Foppert to minor league deal yesterday. If you don't remember, Foppert was originally drafted by the Giants in the second round in the 2001 draft as a Shortstop. The Giants converted him to a starter due in part to his ability to hit the high 90's on the radar gun.

Foppert worked his way up through the Giants system as a starter and in 2002 was a Texas league allstar. That season he was considered the Giants minor league player of the year. Entering the 2003 season, Foppert was Baseball America's #5 prospect overall and #1 pitching prospect. Foppert had won a spot in the Giants rotation by the spring of 2004.

2004 proved to be Foppert's only full season in the majors. He had 21 starts and went 8-9 in 111 innings with 101 K's. He ended up with a WHIP-1.55, an ERA-5.03, and K/9-8.19. The next 2 seasons Foppert bounced between the majors and minors as he nursed injuries and recovered from Tommy John surgery.

Foppert was traded to Seattle with Yorvit Torrealba in 2005 and pitched in their minors for 2 seasons before being released. Foppert signed back with the Giants in early 2007 and spent last seasons at AAA Fresno where he struggled mightly with his control and had an ERA-7.63 and WHIP-2.13.

While Foppert still looks like he has a long way to go to get back to the promising young kid the Giants drafted 8+ years ago and is most likely a long shot at this point, at 29, he is a low risk/high reward type that is good to see in the system. The Giants want to see him succeed as much as he does and have invested alot over the years in his development. At the least, Foppert will fail in his comeback and the Giants are out minor league money. At the best, Foppert could regain his form and become a quality set up man for the likes of Brian Wilson.

Why Not? Joe Crede

Much has been made this offseason about the Third Base situation. Who should it be? Are their internal options? Can Pablo Sandoval handle the job full time? Can Jesus Guzman make the jump to the major league level? Can the Giants find an adequate trading partner? Should they fill the spot via free agency with guys like Ty Wiggington? How about Joe Crede?

Joe Crede is an interesting name out there and many fans seem to want to take a flyer on him. There are valid reasons to want him on the Giants, at least based on past performance. Crede has shown good power, the ability to hit in the clutch, and a great glove. But is he really the answer, long term or short?

Crede is coming off serious back surgery after the 2006 season and played in only 47 and 97 games the next two seasons, while bouncing around the disabled list. he hasn't been able to stay healthy or in a lineup consistantly, and his bat hasn't come back all the way. His normally supurb defense took a major hit last season as well. His career average of 11 Errors in approx 1200 innings at third went up to 20 Errors in 834 innings. That's nearly double the Errors in 3/4 the total innings or a dip from .970 to .930 fielding percentage, not even an average fielder.

While no one thinks he can't get healthy or have a rebound season, the question remains, will he ever get back to his old form?

At 30, Crede should be in his prime, but only for maybe a few more seasons. With the injury history, it is easy to argue he may have played his best already. In the past, Crede put up 4 consecutive seasons (2003-2006)of 19, 21, 22, and 30 HRs, last year 17. With a better lineup around him than the Giants are expected to have, he only produced 75, 69, 62, and 94 RBIs, last season 55. Crede's batting lines were .261/.308/.433/92 OPS, .239/.299/.418/83 OPS, .252/.303/.454/96 OPS, and .283/.323/.506/107 OPS. Last season he hit .248/.314/.460/98 OPS.

Those aren't exactly numbers that jump out as threatening. Compareable 3B on the trading block or in F.A. like Ty Wiggington- 34 2B, 23 HR, 79 RBI, .270/.330/.460/105, Jorge Cantu-40 2B, 23 HR, 96 RBI, .275/.317/.460/102, and Edwin Encarnacion- 35 2B, 23 HR, 85 RBI, .266/.346/.455/103. Other third base options possibly include JJ Hardy, Hank Blaylock, Rich Aurilia, Ryan Zimmerman (highly unlikely at this point but is possible), and Garrett Atkins. All of which have a higher career OPS, BA, and OB%. Only Rich Aurilia lags behind in Slugging, with a career average of only 4 less HR, 6 less RBI, and SL% differencial of .010.

The Giants really only need 1 corner infielder, and if they expand to the First base market, guys like Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher, Chris Davis, and Jason Giambi could be had. Everyone of those is much more potent on offense and the defense Swisher and Davis would provide is at least the same caliber that Crede would provide. With the exception of Davis, all could be had relatively cheaply.

One of the strongly used arguements for signing Joe Crede is the ability to get him on a short term deal. Crede could probably be signed for 1 year and between 6 and 8 million. If the Giants wait long enough, maybe even 5 million. Of the others mentioned above, only Aurilia can more than likely be had on a 1 year deal, but the way the free market is setting up I would not be suprised to see guys like Dunn, Giambi, Burrell, and Wigginton be had on 2 year deals. The reasoning behind the 1 year deal is based around when the Giants young pitching is major league ready and the surplus can be used as trade bait to acquire a young power hitting third baseman.

While I agree this is what eventually will need to be done, nothing points to the Giants being able to count on that surplus next offseason.

While Joe Crede would provide some added boost to the offense, he still wouldn't even be the best bat in the lineup. Bill James Handbook for 2009 shows these projections:

Joe Crede- 96 G, 16 2B, 14 HR, 47 RBI, .255/.312/.447/.759
Bengie Molina- 140 G, 25 2B, 17 HR, 83 RBI, .277/.311/.421/.732
Randy Winn- 155 G, 37 2B, 11 HR, 63 RBI, .287/.347/.416/.763
Pablo Sandoval- 150 G, 42 2B, 17 HR, 103 RBI, .320/.346/.500/.846
Fred Lewis- 140 G, 25 2B, 10 HR, 49 RBI, .277/.353/.416/.769
Travis Ishikawa- 50 G, 12 2B, 7 HR, 30 RBI, .271/.340/.476/.816
Edgar Renteria- 146 G, 33 2B, 11 HR, 69 RBI, .286/.345/.406/.751
Nate Schierholtz-140 G, 36 2B, 17 HR, 74 RBI, .299/.331/.491/.822
Aaron Rowand- 154 G, 38 2B, 18 HR, 74 RBI, .276/.339/.438/.777
Kevin Frandsen- 144 G, 33 2B, 8 HR, 54 RBI, .280/.322/.402/.724

As you can see, everyone currently expected to see the majority of playing time for the Giants is projected to have a better offensive season than Crede, with the onlt exception being in Kevin frandsen's power. The 2 guys most affected by a Crede arrival, Sandoval and Ishikawa, have higher pojections then all the veterens. Now, Crede is only projected for slightly over half the games and could end up staying healthy, but there in lies the biggest problem with him...

Joe Crede can't be counted on to stay healthy! Joe Crede can't be counted on to provide an offensive upgrade over anyone on the team, especially the guy he would bumb, Pablo Sandoval. The other problem is Crede would force Sandoval over to first, which is probably his better position, but more likely than not would force Sandoval back and forth throughout the year as Crede is hurt. That would not help the development of Pablo Sandoval nor Travis Ishikawa.

Joe Crede shouldn't be signed at any costs, he just isn't right, this is why not...

Sanchez on the block? Who do you want for him...

In a conference call today, Giants GM Brian Sabean stated now that they have Randy Johnson under contract, he would start "listening to offers" on lefty stud Jonathan Sanchez.

Many names have been thrown out already this offseason as potential targets and many have been shot down already...Hank Blaylock...Edwin Encarnacion...Jorge Cantu...Dan Uggla...Garrett Atkins...Nick Swisher...Xavier Nady...JJ Hardy...Kelly Johnson

Since this is our time to play GM, lets assume the Giants trade him, who do you want for him? What trade would you make? Realistically, who should the Giants target?

Lets start a comment thread...Who should the Giants trade Sanchez for????

Just for the record, I think they should hold onto him for one more season and see what he can do, but for fun, i'll start the thread...

Johnson contract details

Randy Johnson recieved a 1 year contract for $8 million dollars and incentives that can reach $5 million more.

It sounds like he has a $2.5 million incentive for performance and another $2.5 million in award bonus. I'm guessing the performance are tied mostly to innings pitched and wins and the Award bonuses are tied to reaching 300 wins, 500 K's, post season, allstar game, and Cy Young. Therefore, $2.5 million should be relatively easy to acchieve and the other $2.5 a little harder.

All in all, even if he maxes out, this is a win/win situation for the Giants. I'm certain they would be more than happy to pay $13 million to a pitcher who more or less dominates. Giants: Great sign

Welcome Randy Johnson, now our Cy Youngs out number the others

Randy Johnson is a Giant!

I can honestly say, until this off season, I never thought that would happen. And, he's still good. This is a great move by Brian Sabean in what has been an overall good and productive off season. Johnson brings #2-3 starter quality to fill out the #5 spot on the roster. Combined with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants starting rotation can be as good as anyone's in the league.

This is definately a move that brings more wins to the team and provides the ability to need less run support.. Not that the Giants want to score less runs but this closes the gap between the run differential.

...And think about the K's we will see next year...

We'll have more details on the contracts when they get released.

Ask not what you can do for Teixeria, but what Teixeria can do for you...

In the aftermath of Mark Teixeria signing one of the largest professional athlete contracts in the history of sports, with the N.Y. Yankees, people all across the country are standing up and crying foul. "The system is broken", "baseball needs a cap", "the Yankee's are evil", "baseball is ruined"! You name it, it's probably been said. But really, is the system detrimentally flawed? (thats going to be for another post) And more importantly, what does this signing mean to the Giants? Because really, thats what we care the most about...

So the Yankees just commited nearly half a BILLION dollars to three players over the next 6-8 years. The Giants couldn't do it. Most people wanted the Giants to go hard after Teixeria and Sabathia (myself included, although I wouldn't call it hard, but more off an attempt), now we know the price we would have had to pay. Sabathia could have probably been had for $140-150 mil because he reportedly wanted to play here. Teixeria wanted to be back there, so the Giants would have probably had to go in excess of $200 mil to lure him, and then, the Yankees still may have countered. So here we are, No CC, No Tex. What now?

Well, the Giants still have their money. They still have all their trading pieces. They just signed Randy Johnson to complete a very good starting 5 on paper. The bulpen has been significantly upgraded. The offense has been improved, however slightly. The young guys all have another season under their belt. The outfield is set barring a trade. Really, all the Giants need is just a little more hitting to get them through one more season and then they should be set up good. So how then, do you ask, can the Teixeria signing help? With the Yankee's?

Earlier this off season, the Yankees traded for Nick Swisher. Presumably, at the time, it was to play 1B. Thats not happening now. Now the Yankee's have 4 outfielders making a decent salary and they might be trying to add Manny Ramirez. That means that 1, or even 2 of them are available via trade. They have:

-Johnny Damon- OF only, getting old, 1/$13 mil left, the Giants aren't looking for a 1 year rental and already have Aaron Rowand. Also has a partial NTC.
-Hideki Matsui- Exact same as above, OF only, full NTC, 1/$13 left, Giants have Randy Winn already, not looking for a 1 year rental. And his power at AT&T wouldn't be any better than Molina, probably equal to what Lewis will provide next year.
-Xavier Nady- Another 1 year conract although for about $7 mil. He could potentially play 1B but is not proven their and is a renatl. He also has more value so the Giants would have to give up something they may not want to.
-Nick Swisher- Now here is the intruiging one. he just signed a deal last year and has 3/$21+ left on his current deal plus a club option for $10.25 mil a fourth year. He is coming off a bad year at the plate, Has proven he can play an effective 1B, and has shown a lot of power with 108 career homeruns. Swisher is still only 28, so he should have his best 5 years ahead of him. The Yankee's didn't have to give up much to get him and don't need much now to complete their roster.

This is not to say the Yankee's will just let him go easily but in the end, he may be the most valuable trade chip in other teams can find similar players still on the FA market.

The Yankee's few remaining needs are a bulpen upgrade, backup IF help, a starting pitcher, and restocking the minor leagues. Jack Taschner, Eugenio Velez, Noah Lowry (if healthy), Jose Martinez, Kevin Pucetas (not sure i'd be happy giving him up yet in this deal), and Billy Sadler fit this. I'm sure some lower level minor leaguers would be included but I think a deal could be made.

Why? Fred Lewis

Much has been said about the Giants lack of offense of the Giants need for a power bat in the middle. Most like to say, just go out an sign a FA and take care of it. There are, after all, a few good ones on the market. The problem is, they are all outfielders, at least the ones who want to come here or whom the Giants can afford and the outfield is the Giants most set position. Now, I'm not saying the Giants can't upgrade at any of the three positions, but is it really the right move? I don't think so, what do you think? Let's take a closer look.

Aaron Rowand is starting the second year of a 5 year/$60 mil contract, that leave around $49 mil to go. While he is not completely untradable, he is close based off last years performance and his existing contract. Put it this way, he means more to the Giants having him vs. dealing with the return they would get for him. In a better lineup, different spot in the lineup, or just less pressure, it is safe to presume he can return to his career .800+ OPS.

Randy Winn is the Giants most consistent hitter and a leader in the clubhouse. He is in the final year of his 3 year/$23.25 mil deal that pays him $8.25 mil this season. The Giants need the offense he can provide and being it's his walk year, we should be able to expect bigger things than last year. Rumors are he wants to be extended here (http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/12/giants_to_wait_on_extension_fo.html). The Giants may be able to get a decent return for him but it would probably be better in July when the trade deadline approaches. Keeping Winn for the first few months would also help better gauge whether or not Nate Schierholtz is ready for more than just 4th outfielder instead of throwing him in there and having him fail.

That leaves Fred Lewis. If an outfielder has to give this offseason, it more than likely would be him. So, should he be moved out for a power hitting outfielder?

Lewis just turned 28 Dec. 9th. Last season was his first full season as a starter. Considered a late bloomer in the baseball world as most good ballplayers make a name for themselves by 23-24, not 26. His season ended slightly prematurely as he had surgery to remove a bunion on his foot that he had been dealing with most of his life. Even still, the Giants received ample opportunity to evaluate him as me took over Barry's Yard. The bunion surgery isn't supposed to alter his performance in the future as he should make a full recovery but it is a fairly rare thing for baseball players so whether or not he is ready for opening day is yet to be seen. We'll see come spring training.

Last season, Lewis played in 133 games, most while batting leadoff. Lewis had to concentrate on getting on base so his 2008 stats are more likely to be scued some. Even still, he showed alot of promise that he could be a solid #3 hitter in the future. In 2008, In 468 AB's Lewis had 25 2B's, 11 3B's, and 9 HR's. He also had 81 R to 40 RBI, swiped 21/28 bases, had 51 BB's to 124 K's, and a batting line of .282/.351/.440 with a .791 OPS. Given a full season batting in a more appropriate spot in the order, Lewis should post some pretty nice numbers.

Earlier this offseason, Bill James posted his projections for Lewis next season. They are not nearly as accurate as I believe. What he didn't factor in is a move in the order nor an improved offense, which even with the sole addition being Edgar Renteria and an entire year of Pablo Sandoval, the offense is better. Even still, James shows Lewis hitting, in 498 AB's, 25 2B, 7 3B, 10 HR, 84 R, 49 RBI, 57 BB, 115K, 21/29 SB, and a .277/.353/.416/ with a .769 OPS.

For the simple fact that he should receive more AB's, likely 60+ more, his pure numbers should be higher. With the move to the #3, hitting behind Randy Winn and Edgar Renteria vs. the flavor of the month number 8 hitter and the pitcher, Lewis should see many more run production opportunities. Last season Lewis had to learn to be patient as a leadoff hitter and took a lot of good pitches early in the count. Because of this, Lewis' walk total was up but so were his K's. a move down in the order would decrease his K's slightly but I think it would actually increase his BB's. Lewis learned to be patient and his intentional passes would probably go up due to increased runners on in front of him, especially without a true cleanup hitter. There is no reason, with his speed and power, to think the triples last season were an aberration, nor a more aggressive approach won't produce more extra base hits. His BA may dip some as he figures out his approach but most likely rebound by the end of the season and his OPS should be much higher. His projected totals should be much closer to:
557 AB, 156 H 31 2B, 12 3B, 19 HR, 79 R, 81 RBI, 62 BB, 106K, 24/32 SB, and a .280/.359/.481, with an .840 OPS.

This is an extremely conservative evaluation in my mind and I wouldn't be surprised to see the totals exceed 35 doubles, 15 triples, 23 homeruns, and 30 steals. The Bill James model appears to be flawed and is probably the far low end of what Lewis may produce.

One other thing, most baseball people believe a player has his best years between the ages of 28-32 . If so, hat would mean Fred Lewis is just about to enter that and the Giants still control him for another 4 years with Lewis being a late bloomer.

So I ask you, Why Fred Lewis? Why Not? Do you really want Adam Dunn? Pat Burrell? Bobby Abreu? Milton Bradley? Jermaine Dye? At the expense of Fred Lewis? Or wait one more year...