Thursday, January 1, 2009

Manny have come and Manny have gone, but will Manny be playing in San Fran?

This morning, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post had a story saying the Giants have been secretly and aggresively pursuing Manny Ramirez since November.

Do you want him?

For starters, this is an out of market reporter identifying an unnamed source from MLB, never a vote of confidence on the accuracy of the information. It does however, raise the obvious questions...Do we want him? Who would have to go to accommodate him? How would the Giants keep him happy? HOW MUCH? HOW LONG? How does this effect the youth movement, more specifically Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholtz?

I have to admit, I'd love to stick it to the Dodgers and give them only a second round pick for Manny, as well as take the one guy who put them over the top last year. But I worry what the long term issues may be. Manny opted for F.A. with the idea of getting more than the 3 years he had on his deal. He wanted upwards of $22 million per. Now, he isn't going to get that 5-6 year deal he wants but at 36, he may get a 3-4 year deal. That puts him at 40+ years old when it's done and there has only ever been 1 Barry Bonds so why should we think we found another so soon. Realistically, Manny gets a 2 year deal worth $20+ million per year. The danger there is whether Manny can play happy at the reduced salary.

For Manny to come here, the Giants will have to move at least one outfielder, most likely Randy Winn. Dave Roberts is the obvious fans choice, and probably organization choice, to go. But at $6.5 million in his final year of his contract, and rapidly diminishing skills combined with increasing injuries, it will be hard to find a trading partner. The Giants would either have to take back a bad deal in return or eat alot of money. I could see the Giants eating maybe half. Even if they are to trade Roberts, that still leaves Aaron Rowand, Fred Lewis, and Winn so one more may have to go. Rowand, at 4 years $42 million still on his deal, would also be hard to trade but has some value. If the Giants traded him, they could move Winn to center. It's easy to see Winn being the most likely player to be moved but that raises another question...who hits leadoff. The Giants have already announced their plans to move Lewis to a more productive spot in the order, 5th, and Winn is the only other internal option for leadoff.

If the Giants can somehow convince manny to sign an incentive based deal for 1-2 years...something like 13-15 gaurenteed with easy incentives like 2 million for getting to 25 HR, 2 more at 30, 35, 40, 45, and so on. 2 mil for 100 RBI and another 1 mil for every 10 RBI above that, 2 mil for a .310 BA, with 1 mil for every .010 above that. Manny's career numbers are 35 HR, 115 RBI, and .314 BA. That would equal a salary of 22-24 million next season. Last year he hit 37 HR, 121 RBI, and .332 BA, or a salary of 27-29 million. It's alot of money but the production could be argued to be worth it.

I'm leaning to taking a flyer on Manny Ramirez, especially if it's incentive based over 1-2 seasons. I want to know what you think.

Do you want Manny?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

if we can get Manny on a three year deal then do it NOW
PLEASE SABEAN!

look im all for a youth movement but i think Manny can not only get us into the playoffs but even do some damage once we're in

Chip said...

I'm pretty much in agreement of getting Manny. I would even reach for a 3 year deal, but NOTHING longer than that.
Incentive based would be awesome, but are the Manny offers hurting out there so much that Boras would take an incentive based salary that starts that low? I doubt it.

My preference is Manny for 2 years/$40 mil.