Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Wil he/Won't he, Manny Ramirez, part 63

In the ongoing saga of "Where will he play?", it seems that the choice is down to two teams...

Wait, it's always been two teams...
Well, not really, the Giants have always been on the outside looking in, waiting. So really it's been the Dodgers against the Dodgers...
Yeah, but the Giants have always maintained that if everything worked out perfectly, they WOULD be in...

Well, maybe now,it really is down to two teams, or one for that matter. He could be the Giants for the taking.

What am I talking about you ask? As we all know, originally the Dodgers offered Manny a 2/45 deal with an option, Scott Boras never acknowledged it. Then, the Dodgers offered Manny arbitration, which considering last season he made $20 million, the least he could have received in Arbitration this off season would have been $16 million, again Boras didn't acknowledge the offer. Then, last night, the Dodgers offered Manny a 1/25 deal with a 48 hour window. This time, in less then 2 hours, Scott Boras said NO.

So where do we stand now? The Dodgers still have plenty of money to spend and the Giants not so much, yet the Dodgers still have holes to fill and the Giants not so much. At some point the Dodgers are going to have to go with plan B before all other options are gone. If the Dodgers wait until after Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn sign, after Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera sign, the only options to fill their needs is either a trade, where they would be trading from a disadvantage, or signing Manny, where he would now be in a position of power. Neither work well for them. So the Dodgers are forced to make a tough decision, Pay Manny a lot more, or let him go, to possibly the Giants. As owner Frank McCourt stated today, it appears the Dodgers may be looking into Plan B.

So what should the Giants do now? It's a tough spot, yet I think they are doing the right thing. Standing on the sidelines with open arms, letting them know from the beginning, that if they want to deal a different way, the Giants are here to listen, might just pay off. So Manny didn't want $25 million, who would? So he didn't want 3 years and about $66 million, you wouldn't either. Nope, what you would ant is this...

If the Giants come at them with a 2 year deal it has to have a high total dollar value. What I think they want is $50 million guaranteed. The Giants most likely cannot do that, even in a good economy, so they need flexibility. They also need to make sure Manny stays happy, because there is no point going all in on him if he just goes all Boston Red Sox on you. So how do you find the happy medium? Don't forget Manny opted out of 2 years $40 million to become a free agent. It may not matter to you, but it does to him and if you want him, you have to realize that.

Well, the Giants are banking on Manny being the final piece to making a playoff push this season, so they have to assume he would also boost attendance, food and beer sales, etc...he would raise REVENUE. So, if that is the case, they would also have to assume that they could pay more money to Manny in that situation. So he would need a back loaded incentive laden deal, yet still guarentee enough money that Manny plays happy. Manny wants $5o million, give it to him.

Lets say:
2009- 19 million guarenteed, 2 million- 500 AB's. 1 million for 20 HR and 1 million for every 5 HR over 20. 1 million for reaching playoffs, another million for reaching world series.
2010- 19 million guarenteed, 2 million- 500 AB's. 1 million for 20 HR and 1 million for every 5 HR over 20. 1 million for reaching playoffs, another million for reaching world series.
Throw in another 1 million for MVP and 500K for WS MVP and you have a contract.

Total value, if Manny hit's his career average of 41 HR in 162 Game season, gets 500 AB both seasons, the Giants reach the World Series both years, and he wins all 4 MVP awards, that's 2 years and 59 million. Considering the revenue stream, that wouldn't be such a hit.

Now, I'm not advocating the Giants sign Manny at any cost, but a 2 year deal makes Giant sense. It's hard to argue against it, other than what to do with the other 5 outfielders? But that will work itself out. A 2 year deal would not hamper other moves for the future, nor would it cause the Giants concern over paying Tim Lincecum when he's ready for a long term deal.

So should the Giants pull the trigger? What kind of chain reactions would it set off? As much as I don't want him, I think the Giants would then sign Joe Crede...and hope...and pray...and pray some more, that his back holds together. Other possibilities are a Dave Roberts buyout, although I think that's a forgone conclusion no matter what happens, possible, but not probible Randy Winn trade, even less likely Aaron Rowand trade (although I like a Nick Swisher for Aaron Rowand deal). No, most likely Fred Lewis or Nate Schierholtz would be the odd man out in a trade, which bars the question...Is there anyway to keep them both? "Can Linden play First?" Sorry, I meant "Can Ortmeier play first?" What the...I meant Schierholtz...you know, for an offseason full of "change", lately, I really feel like I've been in a Fucking rerun of the Twilight Zone...

1 comment:

Lou Seal said...

WE NEED TO SIGN MANNY NOW!!

PLEASE!!!!