Wednesday, July 8, 2009

What's up Doc? How about the Giants for a while!!!

Who's ready for a bold move?

Sometimes you have to get bold to win...

...and sometimes you get very bold!

Yesterday, Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi made it known that he would "listen" to conversations about trading ace P Roy Halladay. Translation: Halladay is on the block! And he WILL be traded.

Why not to the Giants?

Ricciardi won't trade Halladay just to trade him, he doesn't need to. Doc is under contract through 2010 with a $14.25 & $15.75 Million price tag over the time period, plus a complete no trade clause. Ricciardi will need a very good haul to let go of Roy, but teams will line up to the offering table. All biases aside, Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball...

Before you jump my shit, I didn't say I'd trade Lincecum for him...and for the record, I'd rather have Timmy. But Doc is the best pitcher currently as he has been consistent at his level for a number of years. I do think Timmy's level is & will match his over time, but we've only had a very short sample size. Still, imagine the rotation...Lincecum, Halladay, Cain, Johnson, Zito... and the Giants are one of the few teams who actually have the resources, the chance to win, the ability to take on payroll, and the right division/league to match up with the Jays.

The Giants farm system is a deep as it has been in 30 years. The team is winning, therefor making money, and as reported yesterday by Hank Schulman, the Brass met to discuss finances... or more like adding payroll. Halladay has the No Trade thing & wants to play for a winner... it's been so long, I almost forgot I was talking about the Giants here... and the kicker, the Jays could trade Halladay to a place the only have to (possibly) see him once every 3 seasons.

Why, do you ask, should the Giants even consider this given the pitching in the minors & the current staff? Easy, because they can simply be the best team in baseball with the addition of Halladay. Naysayers would argue that the Giants should target a bat, but what the Giants really need is a superstar bat & one is just not available, so why not build up the current strength even more?

Halladay will command a deal similar, but possibly slightly better than both the DiamondBacks & Mariners gave up in the Dan Haren & Erik Bedard trades recently. Plus compared to what the White Sox were giving up in the failed Jake Peavy deal, it makes the Giants seem like they have the perfect pieces. A quick rundown on those trades:

-A's Dan Haren (+Conor Robertson) to the DBacks for OF Carlos Gonsalez, P Brett Anderson, 1B Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham, P Dana Evaland, P Greg Smith (the DBacks 1, 3, 7, & 8 ranked prospects)
-Orioles Erik Bedard to the Mariners for OF Adam Jones, P George Sherrill, P Chris Tillman, P Cam Mickolio, & P Tony Butler
-(vetoed deal) Padres Jake Peavy to the White Sox for P Aaron Poreda, P Clayton Richard, P Lance Broadway, & one other unknown Pitcher

Haren was under team control for 3 more season at the time for only $16.25 million total, nearly all of Halladay's 2010 deal. Bedard was under team control for 2 more seasons but was still in arbitration. He's earned only $14.75 million over that time period, or Halladay's salary this season. Peavy, the better of the three, was to be traded for a lesser haul due to his salary (signed through 2013 for $69 million more)

Based on these deals, the Giants are looking at trading 4-5 players depending on the quality. Neither Lincecum nor Matt Cain would need to be involved. The Blue Jays reportedly would like a SS & Pitching back, but will take the best they can get. So who then would the Giants have to part with?

For starters, one of the two untouchable pitchers would have to go. That's either Madison Bumgarner or Tim Alderson. My guess is Sabean keeps Bumgarner, so Alderson becomes the focal point.

Second, the Jays would want a major league ready arm to possibly replace him, so Jonathan Sanchez is included.

The Jays want a SS, but will take the best they can get. I'm guessing one off the 40 man roster for potential. Probably one, maybe two of SS Brandon Crawford, OF Thomas Neal, 3B Conor Gillespie, 2B Matt Downs, 1B/OF John Bowker, 3B/1B/DH Jesus Guzman, SS Emmanual Burriss, or OF Roger Kieschnick

Lastly, they want another pitcher with potential, but it won't be a top prospect so look at P Kevin Pucetas, P Scott Barnes, or P Dan Otero

The Jays obviously see him as a "Type A" free agent after 2010, so they at least want the equivalent of two first round picks for him. Any combination of these Giants would give them that if it starts with Alderson & Sanchez.

Halladay for Alderson, Sanchez, Gillespie, & Otero or
Alderson, Sanchez, Crawford, Downs, & Barnes
Alderson, Sanchez, Guzman, & Neal

The more I look at it, the better it sounds. The Giants still keep Bumgarner, Buster Posey, & Angel Villalona. They still have depth, they still have trade bait for other pieces, they still have youth & a future...and they would have ONE HELL of a pitching staff.

In case for some reason you don't know Roy Halladay that well; he's a 32 year old, former Cy Young, 6 time All Star, who dominates in the AL East. In 11 seasons, he has 43 CG's & 12 Shut Outs (19 & 4 since 2007), 220-260 inning pitched/year.

Career: K/9-6.5, K/BB-3.17, BB/9-2.0, HR/9-0.7, WHIP-1.20, ERA+ 132, 141-68 record, ERA- 3.47

64-27, 3.08 ERA in 115 starts, 25 CG, 5 SHO, ERA+ 144, WHIP 1.101, H/9-8.4, HR/9-0.7, BB/9-1.5, K/9-6.3, K/BB-4.21

Here's a look at Lincecum in his career (since 2007):
34-12, 2.93 ERA in 74 starts, 5 CG, 3 SHO, ERA+ 149, WHIP 1.173, H/9-7.3, HR/9-0.5, BB/9-3.3, K/9-10.1, K/BB-3.11

So why not go bold? The Giants can make a serious run at the World Series title the next two season while not mortgaging the farm. They really wouldn't need to add too much offense if they don't allow any runs...

This year so far, the Giants have recorded 12 team Shut Outs, 10 times they have held teams to 1 run, 13 times to 2 runs, and 8 times to 3 runs. In those 43 games, they are 36-7. Logic says "No Shit Sherlock, if don't don't give up many runs you're gonna win more" but that's the point here. Halladay would basically replace Sanchez/Sadowski. In the 15 games, the Giants are 5-10 behind these two & opponents have scored more than 3 runs 8 times, all losses.

In 16 starts this season, Roy Halladay has only allowed more than 3 runs 4 times. Certainly the difference between them would result in another 4-6 second half wins, or the Wild card race. Then the post season would shape up with Barry Zito in the bullpen...

Time to get bold!!!

BTW, Vote for Pablo


Anonymous said...

I've got an idea that just may be crazy enough to win us a World Series

we trade for not only Halladay but Halladay and Aaron Hill

who is Aaron Hill you say?
he's only a young 2nd baseman who is hitting near .300 with 20 HR and close to 60 RBI
oh and he's under team control until 2011 with club options thru 2014

we would have to give up alot but we get two guys that give us a chance to win it all this year or next

I'd say something like Tim Alderson, Nick Noonan, Conor Gillaspie, Henry Sosa, Thomas Neal, Craig Clark, and Kevin Frandsen for Roy Halladay and Aaron Hill would be a great deal for both sides

I know it seems like alot to give up but we'd still have guys like Bumgarner, Posey, Villalona, Wheeler, Barnes, Dominguez, Rafael Rodriguez etc.

think about it

Anonymous said...

if not Aaron Hill then maybe Adam Lind who is another terrific hitter batting .307 with 17 HR and close to 60 RBI as well

Anonymous said...

and if the Jays said include Villalona I still think it would be worth it

Jim Ellis said...

yeah, it's not a bad idea. I'm not sure they want to trade Hill though.

All indications point toward them looking to clear salary as well as capitalizing on Halladay now. My best guess is Alex Rios is the more likely candidate to get dealt from the offensive side.

I thought about a Halladay/Rios's possible, but would require the Giants to not only give up too much, but take on significant salary.

I don't mind the Halladay salary because he's as sure a thing as it gets, Rios on the other hand not so much.

You are on the right track though. Who knows, I could be wrong. Aaron Hill would be a very nice addition.